This book has caused much wailing and gnashing of teeth by the literati of "Generation X" or "13th Generation." These 15 to 35 year olds, formerly derided as "Slackers," "Yuppies," and "Baby Busters," have finally been classified by a functional system of social arrangement. In the same pop sociology vein that stereotyped Baby Boomers as "idealists," and the generation that survived two World Wars as "civic-minded," Howe and Strauss have managed to pin on the latest generation the name tag "reactive."
However, this time the tag sticks. The authors have researched historical trends and parallels in American societal generations since the Mayflower landed, and have advanced a compelling argument.
Embracing an "age-location" theory of generations, they first define a generation as a "special cohort-group whose length approximately matches that of a basic phase of life." Their next step, a much more controversial one, is to then classify types of generations based upon similar experiences during each generation's life as it reaches a phase. This is the foundation of their theory.
The authors contend that each generation is widely affected by commonly shared events and trends that take place during each phase of their life. The generations before them go through the same events and trends at another life phase. As a result of differences in their ages and shared generational experiences, there is a difference in generational attitudes, causing crisis, which in turn causes the coming generation to develop another attitude in their youth to adapt to their current situation.
There are similarities in the attitudes and capabilities of each generation's members based upon the sum of their common experiences. Thus, similar events happening to generations born in different years (i.e., a war, a great revival, etc.) should result in similar attitudes.
In tracking American history, the authors find a cycle of similar events. Times of spiritual awakening and secular crises seem to repeat every forty years or so. As a result, they postulate that similar attitudes in the past make it possible to predict reaction to events, and future events, in the present.
To put it in the authors' own words, "Generations come in cycles. Just as history produces generations, so too do generations produce history." Events are somehow precipitated because of the interaction of the generations, and trends of secular crisis and spiritual awakening, war and renaissance evolve. From this postulate they deduce future patterns in social outlook and history using a "Generational Diagonal." This tracks characteristics inherent in the generational attitudes of the past based upon their aging. For example, as youths, baby boomers were indulged, and in their current stage of life, they have reached inward and become more narcissistic as a generation. Using past generations in the same place in the cycle, the authors reason the boomers will become moralistic as they age, and upon reaching elder status be hailed as a visionary group. They, along with other past generations with these characteristics, are given the title "Idealists." The so-called "Silent Generation" from 1925-42, is titled "Adaptive," while the generation from 1901-1924 is named as a "Civic" generation. Generation X, the thirteenth generation born in Americais dubbed "Reactive."
But the nature of the generation that has been so hard to classify, and yet packs so much power in disposable income, Generation X, is the authors' most innovative finding. Two of the authors' observations are most helpful in targeting this audience.
First, the authors argue that an enmity will arise between the Boomer and X generations as it has in past generations. They present much evidence to support this contention, from the derision directed at the "Brat Pack" and "Slackers," to the complaints about "inner-directed" youth of the 80's and 90's. Explaining how this division could be used to improve advertising impact on Gen X, Howe and Strauss believe "The most successful of these messages will hint at 13er [Generation X] alienation and appeal to a dark sense of humor."
"Many ads that effectively target 13ers will be pointedly anti-Boom," according to the authors. For marketers, the trick will be how to take advantage of this division while avoiding alienating the key market that is the Baby Boomers. Perhaps targeting tech products more often purchased by youth, as Sega videogame makers have done with their abrasive "SEGA!" campaign, or segmenting anti-Boomer ads to a more youth-oriented medium, such as the Internet or Top 40 radio, will circumvent the problem. In addition, products that hope to continue their current dominance should ensure that their use is not tied to the "old school," or "the way we've always done it."
Although the Gen X age group will be smaller than either the Baby Boom or the kids of the Boomers, their influence behind the scenes may be larger than either. "In business, they will excel at cunning, flexibility, and deft timing...In sports, the combination of 13er coaches and Millenial [those born since 1981] players may well produce a new golden era...In the military, 13ers will blossom into the kind of generals young Millenial soldiers would follow off a cliff." This may mean that marketing targeted at Gen X will not leave a negative impression on the major market segment that follows, the so-called Millenial generation. The tie-in may even be a positive one.
However, because of the current attitude and future status of this generation, avoiding ties to the Boomers is especially important. The second point marketers should bear in mind is that as the X generation ages, its members will become more pragmatic, more family oriented, less alienated, and more embracing of their managerial and leadership role. This generation, according to the authors, will steer the country back to a business and family culture, working hard at the office and playing hard with the kids at home. The cusp of the generation, those born in the early 60's, are already fueling the recent boom of small business. Office and business equipment sellers will need to realign their advertising to the Gen X perspective. And families less likely to divorce will need more "fun for the whole family" style entertainments, and more couple-oriented products.
The most important point, suffusing the authors' analysis, is that Generation X is media savvy to a fault. Marketing to them subtly will be caught out and received with disfavor. As Stan Wonn, who maintains the website alt.society.genx puts it, "Say it--and repeat it again until the words are burned into your head. WE ARE NOT A TARGET MARKET." Gen X does not take kindly to being considered sheep for the shearing by marketers. Rather, they recognize commercial impact on the world around them and filter it through their own life experience. Since they are the first generation born into a society with marketing research and widespread use of national advertising campaigns, this life experience, and the cynicism of the age group, is substantial. The authors predict that "Once marketers realize this, the American media will be barraged with messages stressing bluntness over subtlety, action over words, the physical over the cerebral."
Although I generally agree with the book, I see three problems in the analysis. However, they may not be enough to crumble the usefulness of their model.
First, the authors tend to tailor the presentation to fit their theory. Their flurry of charts and socioeconomic data to bolster their argument is convincing, but when I see the lists of celebrities born in each generation and read each quote trotted out in support of their idea, I am more skeptical. This use of selective trivia to brace their argument makes me question the authors' scrutiny of antithetical data--they mention none. Second, they fail to account for or even address future immigration impact, the difference in generational attitudes of those immigrants, and the huge population growth and changes in generational outlook because of them. Third, they ignore the technology and media explosion, and how this may derail their generational train.
Those criticisms ignored, there are still conclusions to draw from this book useful in analyzing current and future markets.
